November 18, 2009 by Daniel Berkowitz
Zack Greinke took home the American League Cy Young award yesterday, besting Felix Hernandez. I find it very disconcerting that he was not the unanimous choice. Two first place votes went to Hernandez, and one to Justin Verlander. That being said, Greinke won by a very wide margin.
What he did this season was incredible: win a Cy Young for a team with a .401 winning percentage—the lowest such for any AL Cy Young winner. A horrible team, combined with a horrific infield, granted Greinke just 16 wins, the lowest ever for an AL winner.
But the rest of Greinke’s stats were undeniably incredible: a 2.16 ERA over 229.1 innings, with a 1.07 WHIP and 4.75 SO/BB. Hernandez, despite his three more wins, had an ERA of 2.49, a 1.14 WHIP and a 3.06 SO/BB. His more wins were a product of his playing for a better team: the Mariners finished above .500: .525.
How could you not give it Greinke?
Verlander’s ERA was 3.45. Already, he is not deserving when compared to Greinke (and even Hernandez). His WHIP was 1.18, and he completed half as many games as the winner. But, he did strike out 10.1 batters per nine innings and lead the League in strikeouts with 269. Regardless, he pitched for a playoff contention team: he had offense. Greinke had to do everything by himself.
The Royals won just 17 of his 33 starts. Nobody came close to deserving this award more than Greinke, and rightfully so.
Tags: Detroit Tigers, Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Kansas City Royals, Seattle Mariners, Zack Greinke
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November 16, 2009 by Daniel Berkowitz
It’s not even a debate: Tim Lincecum outright deserves the 2009 National League Cy Young award.
He finished third in innings pitched at 225.1, behind Dan Haren with 229.1 and Adam Wainwright with 233. That being said, each of those pitchers started more games than Lincecum.
He finished second in ERA to Chris Carpenter. He was 2.48, Carpenter was 2.24. Lincecum started four more games than Carpenter. Anything can happen in four starts: Carpenter’s ERA might not have necessarily finished above Lincecum’s but odds are it certainly would have been higher than 2.24.
Nobody came close to Lincecum in strikeouts (261). The next closest was Javier Vazquez at 238. Lincecum, along with teammate Matt Cain, led the League in complete games (four). Batters hit just .206 off Lincecum; .226 on Carpenter.
Statistically, it’s not close: Lincecum is the winner. Moreover, he pitched for a poorer offense in the Giants than say the Cardinals, for example. He couldn’t rely on the likes of Albert Pujols or Matt Holliday to bail him out in the seventh inning; he had to do everything himself.
It will be a crime if he does not win his second Cy Young award.
Tags: Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren, Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, Albert Pujols, Adam Wainwright, Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals, Javier Vazquez, San Francisco Giants
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November 15, 2009 by Daniel Berkowitz
John Lackey is the obvious premiere pitcher on the free agent market this winter. Although he is 31 years old, he is going to command quite a contract.
A few knocks on Lackey:
He has a career WHIP of 1.31. He has tossed just 163.1 and 176.1 innings the past two in 2008 and 2009, respectively. He won 19 games in 2007 but otherwise has never won more than 14 games in a season. And, more politically, he has made just one All-Star team and received Cy Young votes just once.
But Lackey is a bulldog; we all saw him yelling at manager Mike Scioscia against the Yankees when he was being taken out. Moreover, he averages 219 innings for every 34 starts. So, if healthy, you can pencil him in for 200+ innings a year.
Alas, that’s the thing: Lackey has not been healthy—51 starts over the last two seasons. And he’s already 31. Do you really want to give him a five-year deal for around $15 million a year?
You have to. Lackey does not put up jaw-dropping numbers on a yearly basis, but he gives you remarkable consistency. He eats innings and, although he gets hit hard, he keeps his team in the game. And he’s post-season proven.
This guy is going to get paid. Whichever team does it will be richly rewarded.
Tags: John Lackey, Mike Scioscia
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November 13, 2009 by Daniel Berkowitz
The Detroit Tigers have made it very clear that they are willing to trade centerfielder Curtis Granderson. The speedy lefthanded hitter is coming off a year in which he made his first All-Star team despite hitting just .249/.327/.453; his OPS was .780. He did slug 30 homeruns and steal 20 bags, but he struck out 141 times and drew just 72 walks—not a great ratio for a guy who should be leading off.
But that is what has become apparent with Granderson: he is not a leadoff hitter. He’s a mid-level power hitter. And he can steal a little.
And he can’t hit lefties for his life. Last year he hit an abysmal .183/.245/.239 with an OPS of .484 off southpaws. Yes, his slugging percentage was actually lower than his on-base percentage: first time in the history of forever.
The Yankees, Angels and Cubs are rumored to be going after him, with the Yankees leading the charge. They should stay away, however. If they were to make a deal for Granderson, they would have to work out a platoon situation in which he would sit against lefties. You cannot send him up there with a .183 average.
And the Angels have to be crazy to consider this deal. With Torii Hunter locked up and the re-signing of Bobby Abreu, they are fine. They should simply focus on retaining Chone Figgins, who is an overall better player.
In fact, that’s who the Yankees should be going after.
Tags: Bobby Abreu, Chicago Cubs, Chone Figgins, Curtis Granderson, Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, New York Yankees, Torii Hunter
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November 11, 2009 by Daniel Berkowitz
With Matt Holliday now officially a free agent, agent Scott Boras is touting him as a ‘complete player,’ worthy of a Mark Teixeira-like contract. Boras calls him one of “less than 30 franchise players” in the majors. He might be one of the 30 best hitters in baseball, but he is by no means a franchise player.
Did you know Holliday has hit 30 homeruns just twice? He has driven in 100 runs just three times?
Holliday, who has spent most of his career in Colorado, is a career .351 hitter at home; .284 on the road. Not a terrible average by any means, but it certainly shows how Colorado has affected his overall numbers.
If you look at his splits, his batting average does not change much by month or game situation. He is a well-rounded, clutch hitter. He’s just simply not a complete player, to use Boras’ language. He’s not a great fielder and he doesn’t draw many walks. Yes, he doesn’t strike out that much for someone with his power, and he is indeed capable of stealing bases, but he is definitely a flawed player in several respects.
During his time in Oakland this past season, he saw his power drop: despite a .284 average, he hit 11 homeruns in 93 games. When traded to St. Louis, he hit 13 in 63. This says one of two things: Holliday either does not play well for losing teams or he does not hit well in the American League.
So who is going to cough up $20 million a year for this guy? All the teams that can afford him, for the most part, already have a ‘franchise player.’ And a lot of these teams are in the AL. And some of them are rebuilding and may endure a sub-par season.
Holliday is not a franchise player. He is a backup. He should stay in St. Louis and play second fiddle to Albert Pujols.
Tags: Albert Pujols, Colorado Rockies, Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday, Oakland Athletics, Scott Boras, St. Louis Cardinals
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November 9, 2009 by Daniel Berkowitz
Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos will be attending the winter GM meetings shortly and will inevitably listen to offers for, arguably, the best pitcher in the game. The Blue Jays marketed Roy Halladay heavily this past summer, but asked the world for him and ended up passing on several deals.
So it would be reasonable to think that Toronto will lower its demands over the winter in order to ship off the right-hander. But that would be foolish.
Now is the time to ask for the world and subsequently hold on to Halladay. Wait until the 2010 trading deadline when a team in contention is more willing to give up top prospects and major league-ready players for the likes of Halladay.
The Blue Jays ace is a game changer; he is one of the most durable pitchers in baseball and his services should not come cheaply. That being said, the Jays must be smart. They can get a lot for him, but they must do it at the proper time.
Tags: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays
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November 5, 2009 by Daniel Berkowitz
Andy Pettitte captured his 18th post-season win last night as the Yankees finally nabbed their 27th World title. He is the all-time winningest pitcher in post-season history, sporting a 3.90 ERA in 249 innings.
In his 15-year career, he has 229 wins and a 3.91 ERA. He has just 25 complete games to his name, and a career WHIP of 1.36.
He doesn’t have the greatest numbers in the world, but is Andy Pettitte a Hall of Famer?
A two-time 20 game winner, Pettitte has spent 12 of his 15 years pitching in the toughest division in baseball: the American League East. He has won five World Series championships, playing major roles in each. Since 1996 he has failed to reach 190 innings just twice, once solely due to injuries. He has always been known as a big game pitcher throughout his career. The writers love him because he always answers the questions and he is considered one of the nicest guys in the game.
So is Andy Pettitte a Hall of Famer?
Statistically, probably not. But the Hall of Fame is not just reserved for the guys with the best numbers; it is for the guys who dominated throughout their tenure.
Does Pettitte fit that mold?
Tags: Andy Pettitte, New York Yankees
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November 2, 2009 by Daniel Berkowitz
When I watched Johnny Damon blindly run from second to third base in the top of the ninth inning, I immediately thought, ‘Damon, you idiot. The ball didn’t get away!’ Little did I realize in that split second that the Phillies were playing a huge shift on Mark Teixeira, leaving nobody at third base. Damon quickly realized the throw had pulled third baseman Pedro Feliz toward the right side of the infield. He knew he could get to third easily.
He said after the game that by getting to third it would hopefully eliminate a “tough slider in the dirt”. Teixeira was then hit. And up came Alex Rodriguez.
A-Rod took a slider for a strike before stroking a 1-0 fastball down the line for a run scoring double. Jorge Posada went on to bring in two more runs before Mariano Rivera nailed it down 1-2-3 in the bottom half of the inning.
Everyone can talk about A-Rod’s clutch double—and he’s certainly worthy of all that praise; it was easily the biggest hit of his career. But Damon’s stealing of third base was a brilliant move. Granted, there were two outs, so a fly ball could not have scored him. But Brad Lidge was on the mound: a guy who does not have a dominant fastball anymore and must rely on hard breaking pitches. Damon was certainly in Lidge’s head.
It was a hell of a move on Damon’s part and it may have single handedly swung the momentum in favor of the Yankees. Up 3-1 with two potential games in the Bronx, New York is in great position.
Tags: Alex Rodriguez, Brad Lidge, Johnny Damon, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees, Pedro Feliz, Philadelphia Phillies
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November 1, 2009 by Daniel Berkowitz
Following yesterday’s 8-5 Yankees victory, Alex Rodriguez discussed his home run in the post-game press conference. He said how it was a big hit for the team and got them going. He then went on to discuss his approach at the plate, saying that just “keeping things simple” has revolutionized his mindset.
We’ve heard it all year; how A-Rod would always try to get the big hit. He would put the weight of the world on his shoulders. Instead of passing the buck to the next guy and accepting a walk, he would swing at pitches out of the zone or pop up on pitches he would normally drive up the middle or out of the park.
But all that has changed. Evidenced by his success this post-season, this is a new Alex Rodriguez. Both on the field and off.
This is the old A-Rod.
He no longer gives Derek Jeter-type answers to questions: ‘We’re just taking this one game at a time and hopefully we’ll come out on the winning side.’ No. Now he answers questions honestly and actually gives information. He discusses his mindset, his emotions, his happiness. He is sincere. And by being sincere and forthright with the media, he has humanized himself.
We want him to succeed. We want him to be happy. We understand that he is a flawed person just like everyone else. He has made tons and tons of mistakes (opting out of his contract during the World Series, performance-enhancing drugs, etc.), but he has tried to make amends. By changing how he handles his life off the field (as he says, getting rid of people in his inner circle who constantly talked in his ear) and straightening out his priorities, he has become a more complete player on the field. He is a shining example of how one’s personal life can affect his professional life. He is a new man.
He is no longer a $250 million-plus contract that can’t stay out of the tabloids. He is now the best player in baseball, once again.
Tags: Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, New York Yankees
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October 31, 2009 by Daniel Berkowitz
Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman was photographed arm-in-arm with women adorning lingerie during his recent visit to Boston. While too much should not be made of this (we should really confine our evaluation to the baseball field), this incident does speak to his character. Is this a guy you want to bring in to your club?
More on the player. According to Keith Law at ESPN:
“Chapman has a huge fastball and has been clocked as high as 100 mph in international competition. But he will sit more consistently in the mid-90s in his best starts and in the low 90s in some of his lesser outings. The quality of his secondary stuff is a bigger question; he has thrown a slider that’s sharp and approaches 90 mph, but pitches primarily off his fastball. He has the arm speed required to throw a plus slider, and has also shown a curve, a cutter and a changeup in past outings. There has been some question over whether his fastball-heavy approach is by choice or whether Cuban baseball officials were trying to limit his appeal to MLB clubs by preventing him from showing off his full repertoire; it is, of course, impossible to confirm that theory. Either way, the fastball/slider combination alone marks him as a potential front-line reliever. With his size and ability to hold his velocity deep into games, he offers the ceiling of a No. 1 starter.”
It certainly sounds as if Chapman has the potential to be successful in the major leagues. But how realistic is this? Remember Jose Contreras?
Everyone talks about how Chapman throws 100 MPH, but not about how he is consistently slower. No one talks about the fact that he hasn’t regularly faced major league hitters; no hitters are as good as those in the MLB.
It would be a risky move for any team to throw $40-50 million at a guy who has never thrown a pitch in the majors.
Tags: Aroldis Chapman, Jose Contreras
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