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Archive for June, 2009

Grady Sizemore Returns from the DL

June 23, 2009

The Cleveland Indians activated Grady Sizemore from the DL today. Having lost six straight games, and sporting the worst record in the American League (29-42), the Indians are desperately in need of any sort of added production.

A three-time All Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, Sizemore is one of the most dynamic centerfielders in the game. He won the Silver Slugger award in 2008 and finished 11th, 12th, and 10th in the MVP race in each of the past three years, respectively.

Sizemore, however, will not be the catalyst that wakes the sleeping Indians out of their last place slumber. Consider the following: The Indians are 6th in the AL in home runs (78), 5th in hits (650), 5th in doubles (136), 4th in RBI (346), and 3rd in runs (370). The only category on which Sizemore could make an impact is stolen bases, in which the Indians rank 9th in the AL (39).

The problem with the Indians is their pitching. They rank last in ERA (5.28) by a considerable margin, 12th in saves (12), and last in walks (288).

The Indians have offense. What they lack is effective pitching, even with the reigning AL Cy Young winner, Cliff Lee. Without some midseason moves to bolster the pitching staff, Sizemore’s impact will be negligible.

Red Sox Blow $100 million on Dice-K

June 22, 2009

In 2006, the Boston Red Sox bid $51.1 million for the rights to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka. They then spent another $52 million to sign him to a six year deal.

Dice-K has not been a disappointment, so to speak, to the Red Sox, but he has by no means been worth his paycheck. In his debut year, 2007, he posted a 4.40 ERA in barely more than 200 innings, surrendering close to a hit an inning, while walking 80 batters.

2008 saw a better year for the Japanese hurler: a 2.90 ERA and significantly less than a hit per inning. Red Sox fans praise Dice-K’s prowess on the mound solely based on his dominance displayed during his ’08 campaign. But let’s be objective and look at some of his numbers:

There are only two numbers over which Matsuzaka deserves praise in 2008: his ERA and his diminishing hits per inning. But in almost 40 less innings, he walked 14 more batters. He also started three less games due to injury. Funny how the guy was able to throw 150+ pitches per start in Japan, but as soon as gets to the States, he can’t remain healthy.

In 2007, he averaged about 6.1 innings per start. In 2008, just over 5.2. People, where is the improvement? He started three less games and saw his endurance fade (note his baffling inability to throw nine innings).

Had he started his three more games (or maybe six more in the vein of a true ace, i.e. Roy Halladay), he could have gotten shelled just once, launching his ERA up half a run. Don’t discount that statement: Anything can happen in three extra starts.

Moreover, Dice-K has been horrendous this year. (And don’t tell me his shoulder hurts. His shoulder hurts the same way Chien-Ming Wang’s shoulder hurt in the beginning of the year when the Yankees sent him down to the minors.) Dice-K is sporting an 8.23 ERA, surrendering 59 hits in 35 innings.

His run in the Majors, however, is not over. How could it be? It never started! This guy has never been a great American League pitcher. Effective? Sure. Great? No. Worth $100 million? Not by any stretch of the imagination.

$27 Million Man Experiences Fatigue, Will Rest $27 Million Hip

June 22, 2009

Alex Rodriguez has been in a horrific slump as of late. He returned from the DL on May 8, and has played 38 consecutive games since; that is admirable. His .153 average and two home runs in June, however, not so much.

Manager Joe Girardi sat Rodriguez for the first two games of a three game set against the Florida Marlins this week, due to ‘fatigue.’ Rodriguez returned to the lineup Sunday, going 1-4, with a two run single and two strikeouts. Girardi and the Yankees staff are blaming A-Rod’s woes solely on fatigue and will therefore bench him one game per week until the All Star Break.

A-Rod, answer me this: Are you fatigued or are you hurt? If you are hurt, you get off the roster and on the DL. Your grit is noteworthy but your production is not. If you are fatigued, you find a way to ‘un-fatigue’ yourself! You make $27 million this year. If you don’t play 160 games a year, you’re not worth your paycheck. I understand you’re coming off major surgery, but if you are not physically able to play, get out of the lineup and let someone else try.

Angel Berroa and Ramiro Pena are the Yankees’ back-up infielders. I’m sure they can hit higher than .153.

A-Rod’s Game Log

One Take on Performance Enhancing Drugs

June 21, 2009

Manny Ramirez will begin his minor league stint on Tuesday and is set to be reinstated July 3. In the wake of the Sammy Sosa revelation, A-Rod’s confession, and the catching of Ramirez, the topic of performance enhancing drugs (PED’s) is starting to become hot once again. Which inevitably got me thinking: Do these guys belong in the Hall of Fame?

In my mind, we must break PED users down into two categories: Pre-2000 and Post-2000. The reason for this separation lies in the motivation of the user.

On the whole, PED users prior to 2000 were not motivated to use simply by greed. We must look at the users’ motivation in the context of the times. 1994 saw the strike, which prematurely ended the season. Stadium attendance steadily declined until McGwire and Sosa’s battle in the summer of 1998. It was this duo that reinvigorated America’s pastime and brought the fans back. Did they use PED’s? I think we can all accord on that.

But let us take the Godfather of the Steroid Era’s statements at face value, for he has been unequivocally correct in his assertions. Jose Canseco wrote that, by his estimation, between 70-80% of players during his time were juicing. These men were not consciously thinking, ‘Let’s use steroids so we can taint the game.’ Instead, their mindset was closer to, ‘Let’s use steroids because others are using, and, if we don’t, we will not be able to compete.’

There is much validity in this sentiment. Many former ballplayers have claimed that if you weren’t juicing, you were either scared or you didn’t care. Obviously we cannot say this is an absolute truth but it really speaks to the mentality of the times: The majority of guys honestly believed they were doing the right thing.

Imagine playing baseball your entire life. From age 5 to 18, all you’re doing is playing baseball and dreaming of the big leagues. Then you get drafted. You make a name for yourself. But you soon start to realize other guys are getting an edge on you. What do you do? Not use PED’s and watch your performance suffer, relatively speaking? Or do you use and still compete? Baseball is not these players’ hobby, people. This is their job. What would you do if your job was in jeopardy?

The users after 2000 however (give or take a year), were motivated primarily by greed. Contracts were starting to reach astronomical proportions and the incentive became self-evident: put up bigger numbers, make more money.

Take Randy Johnson, for example. From 1999-2002, he won four consecutive Cy Young awards for the Arizona Diamondbacks. In ’99, he made less than $10 million, and $13 million each of the next three years. This is one of the greatest four year stretches a pitcher has ever had. Now, look at someone like CC Sabathia who makes over $20 million a year. Neither has ever been accused of using PED’s and I am not suggesting either did. The point I am trying to stress is that, in less than a decade, the baseline for elite players’ salaries jumped drastically.

Guys like Ramirez and Rodriguez have signed some of the most lucrative contracts in history, making well over $20 million per year. They were motivated to juice primarily by greed. Conversely, guys like McGwire and Sosa, who made $8.9 million and $8.3 million in 1998 respectively, had quite dissimilar thoughts running through their minds.

Did they want to put up big numbers? Yes. Did they want to make money? Yes. But they were trying to do something more: bring back the game of baseball. We didn’t ostracize them for using ten years ago when they were giving us something to get excited about and we were turning a blind eye; we certainly cannot do so now.

Open the doors of the Hall of Fame to Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. They deserve it. Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez—I’m not so sure of. If they didn’t juice, maybe they’d only make $15 million a year, as opposed to $25… But the drugs virtually doubled their paychecks. And I don’t know if I have any respect or sympathy for the likes of them.

Let’s try to remember these guys the way they’re portrayed below, not as above, in suits trying to defend their namesakes.

AJ Burnett’s New York Struggles

June 20, 2009

This is the second day in a row that the subject of posts is the New York Yankees, but I promise this will not be the norm.

AJ Burnett’s struggles have been well documented this season. While, at times, he has shown flashes of brilliance, he has, on the whole, not lived up to his 82.5 million dollar contract. His numbers through 13 starts tell the story (The 2008 numbers are over 34 starts):

Now, bear in mind that this is only through just over a third of the season, but two numbers do stick out (highlighted in blue). Burnett has already hit 6 batters and thrown 8 wild pitches, on pace to match last year’s totals around the All Star Break. Let’s extrapolate: Burnett, for whatever reason, does not have the same level of control as he did last season.

He hasn’t lost any ‘stuff.’ He has the same velocity on his fastball and his slider breaks just as hard as it did in previous years. Burnett’s troubles stem directly from his current inability to put the ball where he wants to. This is evidenced by the numbers highlighted in red. His walks are up and his strikeouts are down.

But he is not getting hit any harder; in fact, he is actually giving up less hits as compared to 2008, if only marginally. This is promising. For the fact that, despite his control issues, he is not surrendering more hits gives Yankee fans hope.

In his last start, Burnett went 7 scoreless, allowing just 4 hits while striking out 8. But he did walk 4, the only damper on an otherwise solid outing.

Tonight he will face the Florida Marlins. Whether it is an issue of focus or mechanics, Burnett must make an adjustment. If he doesn’t soon, his woes will only intensify.

A Rational Explanation for the Explosion of Home Runs at the New Yankee Stadium

June 19, 2009

Last night’s 3-0 loss to the Washington Nationals saw the first homer-less game at the new Yankee Stadium in 35 tries. It does appear a bit odd that it took this long for a game to played without a home run occurring, but I do not believe it is that improbable.

Many have written articles about how the Yankees brass is panicking, not knowing what to do about the surge in home runs. Some say the wind conditions due to the stadium’s top-level rafters are to blame, leading to countless right field bombs. Many compare the Stadium to Coors Field.

As stated, I do not believe anything is inherently wrong with the Stadium.

Let’s look at the Yankees lineup since Alex Rodriguez’s return from the DL:

1)    Derek Jeter (R)
2)    Johnny Damon (L)
3)    Mark Teixeira (S)
4)    Alex Rodriguez (R)
5)    Robinson Cano (L)
6)    Hideki Matsui (L)
7)    Jorge Posada (S) (Before his return, it was mostly Francisco Cervelli (R))
8)    Nick Swisher (S)
9)    Melky Cabrera (S)

What sticks out?

Out of the nine hitters (not counting Cervelli (R) or Brett Gardner (L)), only TWO are pure righties! THREE are pure lefties! And a staggering FOUR are switch hitters! If the opposing team tosses the overly likely right hander against the Yanks’ lineup, only two batters will bat from the right side of the plate, while SEVEN will bat left handed.

A lefty’s natural swing is pull, which means his ball will travel to right field. Factor in the fact that there is only one starter in the rotation who throws left handed (CC Sabathia) and there is only one pitcher in the bullpen who throws left handed (Phil Coke), and you created opposing lineups that are stacked with left handed hitters as well.

I will not go so far as to say that this is the sole reason for the abundance of right field home runs at the new Yankee Stadium, but it is definitely a very large part of it.

Furthermore, the Yankees pitching staff has been abysmal this year:

4.74 ERA: 26th in the Majors
312 earned runs allowed: 26th in the Majors
260 BB allowed: 25th in the Majors
87 HR allowed: 29th in the Majors

The combination of the poor pitching staff and the powerful lineup adds drastically to the home run total at the Big Wiffle Ball Park in the Bronx (to quote Baseball Tonight).

Finally, Yankee Stadium, which the new Yankee Stadium is modeled after, has always been known for its ’short porch in right.’ It’s not uncommon for lefties to try to hit home runs.

Last word: The Yankees have always relied on the home run, for good or for bad. And their pitchers have always been susceptible to the long ball due to the park’s dimensions down the lines. If the pitching staff can improve, I firmly believe the home run total will return to normal by the end of the season.

Rick Porcello: The Next Big Thing

June 19, 2009

Move over, David Price; the best young arm on the hill belongs to Rick Porcello. Just 20 years old, he is the youngest player in the Majors. If he continues at his current pace, he will easily win the AL Rookie of the Year award.

Price is highly touted, and rightfully so. He throws close to 100 mph, has some great secondary pitches and has a body built to pitch. Plus he’s lefty. But his performance in last year’s playoffs for the Tampa Bay Rays allowed writers and those in the baseball community to prematurely anoint him the next elite pitcher.

Porcello, meanwhile, throws about 5-6 mph slower than Price and is righty. He pitches for the Detroit Tigers so he does not get the same spotlight as Price, who plays for the reigning AL champs. But I believe he has the brighter future of the two.

Let’s look at a few stats to compare the two young arms:

David Price is averaging 103.6 pitches and less than 5.1 innings per start. Porcello, on the other hand, going into last night’s start, was averaging 86.5 pitches and 5.2 innings per start.

What does this say? Porcello has the ability to conserve his pitches better than Price. He is averaging close to 20 less pitches per start while going further into games. Price relies too heavily on the strikeout: This season, he is averaging 10.7 per nine innings, while Porcello averages just 5.0. Advantage Price, right?

Not exactly. Price averages an astonishing 6.2 walks per nine innings! Porcello: just 2.8.

Here is a further breakdown of pertinent statistics:

The bottom line: Porcello is, at this point in their careers, a more polished pitcher than Price. He is three years younger and much more poised. Price is too erratic. Yes, many of the statistics are comparable, but the two that stick out (and affect a starting pitcher the most) are vastly different.

Now, I understand Price has only started five games this year while Porcello has started 12. Moreover, they are both very, very young. So why am I making such a big deal about this?

Because Price has been lumped into the category of elite young pitchers when he is simply not there yet. Joba Chamberlain and Felix Hernandez have fallen prey to this fallacy as well. But because of Price’s success in the playoffs last year, he has been deemed The Next Great Thing. Re-think this, people. Rick Porcello has the intangibles and the physical ability to dominate Major League hitters. And he proves it every time he takes the hill.