MLB Babble

2009 will see Tim Lincecum reel in his second consecutive Cy Young award, while Roy Halladay will win his second Cy Young award as well.

Here is my top 5 in each league for consideration, in no particular order:

National League:
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Chris Carpenter
Dan Haren
Adam Wainwright

American League:
Zack Greinke
Roy Halladay
Felix Hernandez
Justin Verlander
Josh Beckett

To the NL first:
Lincecum is third in ERA of these five (although Carpenter, the leader, has at least 25 less innings than each other pitcher), but he is just .08 points from the top. He has the most innings logged of all, and has a commanding lead in strikeouts (191). Interesting stat: he has only given up six home runs. Carpenter, with 41 less innings pitched, has surrendered five. Lincecum leads all men in complete games and is the only one with multiple shutouts. Yes, Haren has a mindblowing .86 WHIP, but Lincecum’s is 1.05—a more than solid statistic.

Here are my knocks on the other guys:
Cain doesn’t strike anyone out. 112:54 K/BB ratio. You don’t have to be a strikeout pitcher to win the Cy Young by any means of course, but when the rest of your numbers are so similar to everyone else’s, these stats can become a deal-breaker.

Carpenter looks great so far. He was injured in the beginning of the year so he doesn’t have as many innings as the others yet. I don’t think he’s going to get shelled and ruin his stats any time soon, but I don’t think his ERA is going to remain hovering around two for that long.

Haren has been faltering of late. His ERA was 1.96 a few starts ago; it is 2.19 now. If he doesn’t get back on track soon, he’ll find himself out of this conversation.

Wainwright has the same problem as Cain. K/BB ratio is 135:53 (2.55:1). Lincecum is 4.66:1.

To the AL:
Halladay’s ERA is currently 2.68, .6 points higher than Greinke’s. The Royals pitcher will have at least one outing down the stretch where he will falter—that ERA will not stay around two. Halladay has by far the best K/BB ratio, 129:20 (6.45:1). Greinke is the next closest at 5.46:1. Halladay, now that he knows he is staying put in Toronto for the rest of the season, will pitch even better; don’t underestimate the psychological impact that being in the news every single day by no fault of your own can have.

No knocks on Greinke. I just don’t think he’ll pull it off.

King Felix has just one complete game this year, compared to Halladay’s four (and Greinke’s five). That being said, he does lead the field in innings pitched. He’ll finish with a great season, but not as statistically solid as Halladay’s. His K/BB ratio is 3.28:1.

Verlander is erratic. Yes, he’s been dominant this year but, every time he takes the hill, I just don’t know what I’m getting. He’s always, in my mind, one start away from raising his ERA .4.

Beckett is just too far back statistically. A 3.27 ERA and a 3.38 K/BB ratio won’t cut it when compared to Halladay. He’ll have a bad start soon as well.

Halladay’s WHIP is 1.07. Greinke, 1.09. Hernandez, 1.16. Verlander, 1.17. Beckett, 1.15.

These predictions and opinions are of course subjective and I understand if people disagree or use different statistics to back their claims. Sure, my stats are used to make my case but, on a level entirely separate from numbers, I believe Lincecum and Halladay will pull off the feats.